Predictive Alerts

Get notified before bills change, not after

What are Predictive Alerts?

Predictive Alerts use machine learning to forecast bill progression and notify you before changes occur. Unlike traditional bill tracking that notifies you after changes happen, Senra IO alerts you when bills are advancing, not just if they will pass. Get early alerts based on Timeline ETA (days until next stage) and Next Stage (30d) predictions.

Know When Bills Are Passing

Get early alerts when bills are advancing through Parliament. Know when legislation is moving forward, not just if it will pass. Never miss a critical advancement with Timeline ETA predictions and urgency indicators.

How It Works

Set Thresholds

Configure alerts for timeline estimates, probability changes, or trend shifts.

Monitor Automatically

Our ML models continuously analyze bills and check against your thresholds.

Get Notified

Receive alerts via webhooks or email when predictions meet your thresholds.

Alert Types

Choose from 7 different alert types. The most important is timeline_eta, which tells you when bills are advancing. Pilot users get 2 event types, Pro users get all 7.

timeline_eta

Pilot+

Primary

Most Important Alert Type: Alert when next stage ETA changes (days until next parliamentary stage, not Royal Assent). This tells you whenbills are advancing, not just if they will pass. Example: "Alert me if any bill is likely to progress within 7 days"

Timeline ETA predicts days until the next parliamentary stage (e.g., 2nd reading → Committee). Median error: ~19 days. Use this for early alerts and planning.

{
  "alert_type": "timeline_eta",
  "threshold_value": 7.0,
  "comparison": "less_than"
}

probability

Pilot+

Alert when Royal Assent probability crosses a threshold. Example: "Alert me if probability exceeds 80%"

{
  "alert_type": "probability",
  "threshold_value": 0.8,
  "comparison": "greater_than"
}

Pro Only

Advanced Alert Types

spike - Detect sudden probability changes

trend - Track upward trends in bill progression

crossed - Alert when threshold is crossed

Risk-Based Alerts

Create alerts based on risk prediction models to get notified when bills face high risk of stalling, amendments, close votes, or withdrawal. Risk alerts help you identify bills that may need attention or face challenges in their legislative journey.

stall_risk

Pilot+

Alert when probability of bill stalling (>200 days without progress) meets threshold. Example: "Alert me if stall risk exceeds 70%"

{
  "alert_type": "stall_risk",
  "threshold_value": 0.7,
  "comparison": "greater_than"
}

amendment_risk

Pilot+

Alert when probability of significant amendments meets threshold. Example: "Alert me if amendment risk exceeds 60%"

{
  "alert_type": "amendment_risk",
  "threshold_value": 0.6,
  "comparison": "greater_than"
}

close_vote

Pilot+

Alert when probability of close vote meets threshold. Example: "Alert me if close vote risk exceeds 50%"

{
  "alert_type": "close_vote",
  "threshold_value": 0.5,
  "comparison": "greater_than"
}

withdrawal_risk

Pilot+

Alert when probability of bill withdrawal meets threshold. Example: "Alert me if withdrawal risk exceeds 40%"

{
  "alert_type": "withdrawal_risk",
  "threshold_value": 0.4,
  "comparison": "greater_than"
}

Risk Alert Use Cases

Early Warning: Get notified when bills show high risk of stalling, allowing you to take proactive action or adjust expectations.

Amendment Tracking: Monitor bills likely to face significant changes, helping you track evolving legislation.

Contention Detection: Identify bills facing close votes or high withdrawal risk, indicating contentious legislation.

Risk Predictions & Indicators

In addition to progression predictions, Senra IO provides advanced risk assessment models that offer early warning signals for bills at risk of stalling, facing amendments, close votes, or withdrawal.

stall_risk

Probability that a bill will stall (e.g., no progress for >200 days) before reaching Royal Assent. High stall risk indicates bills that may get stuck in the legislative process.

amendment_risk

Probability that a bill will face significant amendments or changes during its parliamentary journey. Useful for understanding how much a bill may change before final passage.

close_vote

Probability that a bill will face one or more close votes (<10% margin) in Parliament. High close vote risk indicates contentious legislation that may face opposition.

withdrawal_risk

Probability that a bill will be withdrawn, abandoned, or defeated before reaching Royal Assent. Critical for identifying bills that may not complete their legislative journey.

Risk Indicators

Controversy Score: A score (0.0-1.0) indicating the level of public/political controversy surrounding the bill. Higher scores indicate more contentious legislation.

Momentum Score: A score (0.0-1.0) indicating the current legislative momentum of the bill. Higher scores indicate bills moving quickly through Parliament.

Risk Levels: Categorical risk levels ('low', 'medium', 'high') for stall risk and withdrawal risk, calculated from prediction probabilities.

Actionable Insights

Risk predictions are accompanied by actionable insights that help you understand what factors are driving the risk assessment and what you can do about it:

• Sponsor Impact: How the bill's sponsors' historical success rates affect predictions
• Vote Dynamics: Analysis of past votes and margins to predict future close votes
• Momentum Indicators: Signals about whether a bill is gaining or losing momentum
• Timing Factors: How long since last update, days since introduction, and stage progression affect risk

Setting Up Alerts

Step 1: Create a Watchlist

Alerts are tied to watchlists. First, create a watchlist and add bills you want to monitor.

Create Watchlist

curl -X POST "https://api.senraio.com/api/v1/dashboard/watchlists" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "name": "Critical Bills",
    "description": "Bills affecting our industry",
    "bill_ids": [12345, 12346, 12347]
  }'

Step 2: Create Alert Threshold

Create an alert that triggers when bills in your watchlist are likely to progress within 7 days, or create a risk-based alert for high stall risk.

Timeline ETA Alert:

Create Timeline Alert

curl -X POST "https://api.senraio.com/api/v1/predictions/alerts/thresholds" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "watchlist_id": 1,
    "alert_type": "timeline_eta",
    "threshold_value": 7.0,
    "comparison": "less_than"
  }'

Risk-Based Alert (Stall Risk):

Create Risk Alert

curl -X POST "https://api.senraio.com/api/v1/predictions/alerts/thresholds" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "watchlist_id": 1,
    "alert_type": "stall_risk",
    "threshold_value": 0.7,
    "comparison": "greater_than"
  }'

Step 3: Set Up Webhook (Optional)

Receive real-time notifications when alerts trigger. Create a webhook endpoint in your system.

Create Webhook

curl -X POST "https://api.senraio.com/api/v1/dashboard/webhooks" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{
    "url": "https://your-domain.com/webhooks/senra",
    "events": ["prediction.imminent_stage_change", "prediction.high_probability"]
  }'

Step 4: Check for Alerts

Manually check for triggered alerts, or let Pro tier handle it automatically (hourly).

Check Alerts

curl -X POST "https://api.senraio.com/api/v1/predictions/alerts/check" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer YOUR_API_KEY"

Tier Comparison

Feature	Pilot	Pro
Alert Thresholds	5 per watchlist	Unlimited
Event Types	2 types	11 types
Risk-Based Alerts
Checking	Manual	Automated (hourly)
Email Notifications
Alert History

Common Use Cases

Use Case 1: Early Warning System

"Alert me if any bill in my watchlist is likely to progress within the next week"

alert_type: "timeline_eta"
threshold_value: 7.0
comparison: "less_than"

Use Case 2: High Probability Alerts

"Notify me when a bill's Royal Assent probability exceeds 80%"

alert_type: "probability"
threshold_value: 0.8
comparison: "greater_than"

Use Case 3: Probability Spike Detection (Pro)

"Alert me when a bill's probability suddenly increases (spike detection)"

alert_type: "spike"
threshold_value: 0.15
comparison: "greater_than"

Use Case 4: High Stall Risk Alert

"Alert me when any bill in my watchlist has a stall risk exceeding 70%"

alert_type: "stall_risk"
threshold_value: 0.7
comparison: "greater_than"

Use Case 5: Withdrawal Risk Monitoring

"Notify me when a bill's withdrawal risk exceeds 40%, indicating it may be abandoned"

alert_type: "withdrawal_risk"
threshold_value: 0.4
comparison: "greater_than"

Ready to Set Up Alerts?

Predictive Alerts are available for Pilot and Pro subscribers. Start with Pilot for £500 (30 days).